Key regional climate issues: A Guide for architects to drive change

Climate issue: Rapid warming

Alaska is the fastest-warming region in the U.S.—and among the fastest globally. Temperatures in northern Alaska could increase by more than 6° F under a moderate emissions scenario. In a higher emissions scenario, temperatures could increase by more than 16° F.

Architects will need to adapt their designs to these rapidly warming temperatures, including considering air conditioning in summer and creating outdoor spaces that can be used in shoulder seasons. Another consideration: Rapid warming may lead to instability for buildings on ground experiencing freeze-thaw.

Climate issue: Wildfires

The combination of a shortened snow-cover season and higher temperatures over the last 50 years have led to an increase in Alaskan wildfire activity. The most recent decade has seen an unusually large number of years with anomalously large wildfires in Alaska. And by 2100, the total area burned is projected to increase between 25% and 53%.

Increasingly, architects should consider selecting wildfire-resistant materials, implementing strategies to improve indoor air quality during a wildfire event, and avoiding building in vulnerable areas.

Climate issue: Sea ice decline and coastal impacts

Sea ice loss, storminess, river flow, and relative sea-level rise are contributing to shoreline erosion at a rate of more than 60 feet per year in some parts of Alaska.

These impacts are significant. Not only do they expose buildings to more storm and wind damage—which architects should design for—they are forcing some communities to relocate individual buildings or whole villages further inland.

A selection of regionally specific reports and resources:

• Fourth National Climate Assessment: Alaska chapter: A chapter from the NCA dedicated to the climate risks and vulnerabilities specific to the Alaska region.
• Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP): A NOAA-sponsored regional climate assessment office that conducts collaborative research and engagement to inform climate policy and decision-making for a just, sustainable future.
• Cold Climate Housing Research Center: The Building Science Research program conducts experiments and provides analysis on building and energy systems in cold climates.
• Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning: A network that utilizes data analysis, planning, and communication to create and share climate projections.
• Adapt Alaska: A resource hub to inform decision makers about climate adaptation implications in Alaska.
• Alaska Climate Change Impact Mitigation Program: Created under the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community, and Economic Development to provide technical assistance for communities threatened by climate change

The Midwest region includes Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Climate issue: Winter warming, summer heat

Rising temperatures will lead to extreme heat days across the Midwest, affecting work conditions, agricultural productivity, and human health. Under the higher emissions scenario, the Midwest will be more like Las Vegas by the end of the century and is projected to have a larger increase in extreme temperature-related premature deaths than any other region.

For architects, extreme heat days may impact construction schedules or cause delays. Smart surfaces and passive design strategies can reduce cooling load, even as air conditioning becomes a critical system in the region. At the same time, warming winters present an opportunity for more outdoor spaces that can be used during shoulder seasons.

Climate issue: Heavy precipitation and flooding

The Midwest is especially vulnerable to the economic and physical damages of flooding, now and in the future. Since the 1950s, the amount of rainfall during the heaviest rainfall events has increased by 42% and, in the last quarter-century, the Midwest has experienced $3 billion in flood damage. Additionally, climate projections suggest an increased risk of inland flooding under either future scenario outlined in the NCA.

Managing excess water through permeable surfaces, green infrastructure, and other strategies will continue to be a key issue for architects practicing in the region. Similarly, architects should thoughtfully consider building access and placement of critical systems in light of basement or lower-floor flooding.

Climate issue: Drought

Although the heaviest rainfall events will deliver more water than ever, the Midwest region is also expected to experience more drought in future years. Drought conditions exacerbate flooding because the very dry ground is unable to absorb rainfall quickly enough. These conditions may also lead to limited water supplies, dust, and food insecurity.

Architects should prioritize rainwater collection, greywater systems, and low-water building designs to protect limited water resources.

A selection of regionally specific reports and resources:

• Fourth National Climate Assessment: Midwest chapter: A chapter from the NCA dedicated to the climate risks and vulnerabilities specific to the Midwest region.
• Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments: A NOAA-sponsored regional climate assessment office
• Chicago Climate Action Plan: A comprehensive roadmap that outlines the next steps in undertaking climate change at a city-level.  
• Illinois Climate and Equitable Jobs Act: A recently passed bill that aims to address climate change and equity that includes provisions for electrification of buildings and “stretch”’ building codes.
• Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment: A resource that provides the latest scientific research to help Hoosiers understand and prepare for the impacts of a changing climate.
• Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI): A resource that provides science-based assessments of climate change impacts in Wisconsin communities, ecosystems, and industries.

The Northeast region includes Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.

Climate issue: Heavy precipitation

When it rains, it pours … especially in the Northeast region. About 55% more rain falls during the top 1% of heavy rainfall events across the region today compared to the 1950s. For example, what might have been a 3-inch rainfall is now a 4.5-inch rainfall. Coupled with increased daily tidal flooding, the region should brace for lots more water.

Managing excess water through permeable surfaces, green infrastructure, and other strategies will continue to be a key issue for architects practicing in the region. Similarly, architects should thoughtfully consider building access and placement of critical systems in light of basement or lower-floor flooding.

Climate issue: Winter warming, summer heat

Winter temperatures have increased three times more than summer temperatures, but summers are expected to make up more of the increase in the late 21st century. Indeed, some parts of the region—especially in the southern part of the Northeast—could see the number of days over 90° F increase by more than 40 days a year in a higher-emissions scenario.

While cities across the Northeast tend to have a strong heating infrastructure, they often have a low degree of urban vegetation and are generally poorly adapted to an increase in the number of days where cooling is needed. Architects can use smart surfaces and passive design strategies to reduce cooling loads, even as air conditioning becomes a critical system in the region. At the same time, warming winters present an opportunity for more outdoor spaces that can be used during shoulder seasons.

Climate issue: Sea-level rise

Like most coastal regions, the Northeast region will feel the effects of sea-level rise. These effects aren’t limited to disaster events, either. In a mid-range scenario, New York City could have daily tidal flooding about 170 days per year by the end of the century. Under a higher emissions scenario, it could experience daily tidal flooding nearly every day of the year!

Challenges architects should consider include access to buildings along coastal routes, lower-floor flooding during high tides and storms, and possible foundation issues as the water table rises.

A selection of regionally specific reports and resources:

• Fourth National Climate Assessment: Northeast chapter: A chapter from the NCA dedicated to the climate risks and vulnerabilities specific to the Northeast region.
• Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast: A NOAA-sponsored regional climate assessment office.
• NYC Panel on Climate Change: A 20-member independent advisory board that disseminates climate science in order to make policy recommendations to city officials on resilience and adaptation guidelines.
• Boston Climate Resilience Guidance: A resource including specific future scenarios and design guidance.
• Vermont Climate Assessment: A resource that provides a framework for understanding climate change impacts in Vermont to help citizens and decision-makers discern climate data and prepare for future scenarios.
• Maine Climate Council Reports: The state government's climate change resources and action plans, including specific future scenarios and design guidance.

The Northern Great Plains region includes Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming.

A significant amount of land in the Northern Great Plains is tribal. Indigenous nations are often more vulnerable to shifts in climate, but many are also leading the way on resilience and mitigation efforts.

There is a significant opportunity for architects and communities to develop partnerships with tribes across the region to innovate on building for resilience and emissions reduction.

Climate issue: Heat

Even in a lower-emissions scenario, by mid-century, parts of the Northern Great Plains region could see more than 30 more days above 90° F than currently. Virtually the entire region will see an increase in the number of hot days.

Architects working in the region should rely on smart surfaces and passive design strategies to reduce cooling load and may need to consider air conditioning as a critical system. Increased heat also presents an opportunity for more outdoor spaces that can be used during shoulder seasons.

Climate issue: Declining snowpack

Declining snowpack in the region may contribute to water scarcity and increased wildfires. In addition to conserving a limited water supply for residents and commerce, architects should consider strategies to protect occupants from wildfire smoke.

Climate issue: Uncertainty and variability

Adaptivity will be key for architects designing in the Northern Great Plains region. Changes in precipitation, storminess, and windiness are unclear; however, the region will continue to experience large seasonal swings.

A selection of regionally specific reports and resources:

• Fourth National Climate Assessment: Northern Great Plains chapter: A chapter from the NCA dedicated to the climate risks and vulnerabilities specific to the Northern Great Plains region.
• Nebraska state assessment of climate change: Research from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln on the climate change implications for Nebraska's economy, environment, and citizens.
• City of Lincoln 2021-2027 Climate Action Plan: A roadmap that outlines the next steps in undertaking climate change at a city-level.  
• Montana Climate Solutions Plan: The comprehensive recommendations from the Montana Climate Solutions Council that proposes next steps in undertaking climate change in state planning.

The Northwest region includes Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.

Climate issue: Snowpack and water supply

Parts of the Northwest region are heavily dependent on snowmelt for residential and agricultural water supplies. Facing significant declines in snowpack toward the end of the century, the region may also experience limited water supplies, dust, and food insecurity.

Architects should prioritize rainwater collection, greywater systems, and low-water building designs to protect limited resources and help the region adapt to its changing climate.

Climate issue: Summer heat

Under the highest-emissions scenario, the Northwest region may experience a month or more of 90° F days, and the warmest day of the year could be more than 6° F warmer than normal highs today. The economic and health impacts of these changes would be significant. As we saw during the 2021 heat wave from shuttered schools and offices, the Northwest region is generally not well-adapted to heat.

Architects working in the region should rely on smart surfaces and passive design strategies to reduce cooling load and may need to consider air conditioning as a critical system. There may also be opportunities to develop more outdoor spaces that can be used during shoulder seasons.

Climate issue: Wildfire

The declining snowpack contributes to an increased risk of wildfires. Increasingly, architects practicing in the region should consider wildfire-resistant materials and strategies to improve indoor air quality during a wildfire event and avoid building in vulnerable areas.

A selection of regionally specific reports and resources:

• Fourth National Climate Assessment: Northwest chapter: A chapter from the NCA dedicated to the climate risks and vulnerabilities specific to the Northwest region.
• Oregon State University Climate Impacts Research Consortium and the University of Washington-based Climate Resilience Collaborative: Both NOAA-sponsored research consortiums and collaboratives to support community members, policy makers, and resource managers in the Northwest region. ​
• Oregon Climate Action Plan: A comprehensive roadmap that outlines the next steps in undertaking climate change at the state level.
• Washington State Energy and Environment: The state government's Energy and Environment page of resources, including climate-related policy.
• King County Climate Actions and Strategies: A webpage that outlines King County's plans and resources for addressing climate change, including a toolkit and strategic climate action plan.

The Southeast region includes Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.

Climate issue: Heat and humidity

The Southeast region can expect more and longer summer heatwaves, with nights that stay above 80° F—now relatively rare—commonplace by the end of the century. Three of the five large cities that are exceeding national averages for all aspects of heat waves (timing, frequency, intensity, and duration) are in the Southeast region—Birmingham, New Orleans, and Raleigh.

These issues are compounded by high humidity throughout the region. The Southeast has more days with stagnant air masses than other regions of the country: 40% of summer days! This combination of heat and humidity will lead to an increase in vector-borne diseases. For example, summer increases in dengue cases are expected in every state in the Southeast.

Architects working in the region should rely on smart surfaces and passive design strategies to reduce cooling load and should consider air conditioning as a critical system. There may also be opportunities to develop more outdoor spaces that can be used during shoulder seasons.

Climate issue: Extreme storms and rain

As in other regions, the top 1% of heavy rainfall events across this hurricane-prone region are delivering more water than ever. Architects can help adapt to extreme storms and rain through a variety of strategies, including design to withstand higher winds; locating critical systems on higher floors; and managing excess water through permeable surfaces, green infrastructure, and other strategies.

Climate issue: Sea-level rise

The Southeast region is vulnerable to sea-level rise, and not just during disaster events! By 2045, Charleston, South Carolina, is projected to experience flooding in coastal areas during high tide (tidal floods) nearly 180 times per year, compared to 11 floods per year in the late 21st century.

Architects and communities can adapt to sea-level rise in a variety of ways, including raising or moving especially vulnerable buildings. Challenges include access to buildings along coastal routes, lower-floor flooding during high tides, and possible foundation issues as the water table rises.

A selection of regionally specific reports and resources:

• Fourth National Climate Assessment: Southeast chapter: A chapter from the NCA dedicated to the climate risks and vulnerabilities specific to the Southeast region.
• Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments: A NOAA-sponsored regional climate assessment office), including a precipitation mapping tool for the Carolinas.
• North Carolina Climate Risk Assessment and Resilience Plan: The state’s most comprehensive effort to date, based on science and stakeholder input, to address North Carolina’s vulnerability to climate change.
• Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact: A comprehensive assessment that outlines different sea-level rise scenarios.
• Atlanta Climate Action Plan: A roadmap that outlines the next steps in undertaking climate change for city that includes a section on commercial and residential buildings.

The Southern Great Plains region includes Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Climate issue: Rainfall and drought

Drought throughout the region may lead to limited water supplies, dust, and food insecurity. Architects should prioritize rainwater collection, greywater systems, and low-water building designs to protect limited water resources.

At the same time, architects in the region should locate critical systems to avoid damage from lower-floor flooding. When the ground is very dry, it’s unable to absorb rainfall quickly enough to avoid flooding.

Climate issue: Heat

Rising temperatures will lead to extreme heat days across the Southern Great Plains region; by the end of the century, there may be 30-60 more days over 100° F! Rising temperatures will affect work conditions, agricultural productivity, and human health. Workers in the region are projected to experience higher-than-average negative impacts, with some communities projected to lose more than 6% in annual labor hours.

For architects, extreme heat days may impact construction schedules or cause delays. Smart surfaces and passive design strategies can reduce cooling load, even as air conditioning becomes a critical system in the region.

Climate issue: Sea-level rise

The sea-level rise in the Gulf Coast is twice the global average, posing a constant threat to homes, industry, infrastructure, and more. Already, the average rate of beach erosion along the Texas Gulf Coast is 10 feet per year. By the end of the century, parts of the coast, including Galveston Bay, Texas, are projected to experience daily tidal flooding 365 days per year under the highest and mid-case emissions scenarios.

Architects and communities can adapt to sea-level rise in a variety of ways, including raising or moving especially vulnerable buildings. Challenges include access to buildings along coastal routes, lower-floor flooding during high tides, and possible foundation issues as the water table rises.

A selection of regionally specific reports and resources:

• Fourth National Climate Assessment: Southern Great Plains chapter: A chapter from the NCA dedicated to the climate risks and vulnerabilities specific to the Southern Great Plains region.
• Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP):  A NOAA-sponsored regional climate assessment office.
• Texas Coastal Resiliency Master Plan: Many cities in Texas have climate and/or resilience plans, including Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio.
• Kansas City Regional Climate Action Plan: A comprehensive roadmap that outlines the next steps in undertaking climate change for the metropolitan area.

The Southwest region includes Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah.

Climate issue: Drought and wildfire

The Southwest region will continue to experience droughts and wildfires—two closely related climate risks. In addition to creating tinder for wildfires, drought conditions may limit water supply, increase dust, and exacerbate food insecurity.

Architects practicing in the region can design more adaptively for both drought and wildfires. Strategies for adapting to drought conditions include rainwater collection, greywater systems, and low-water building designs to protect limited resources. Considerations for adapting to wildfire conditions include using wildfire-resistant materials, improving indoor air quality during a wildfire event, and avoiding building in vulnerable areas.

Climate issue: Heat

In a region that already has multiple months where temperatures reach over 90° F in places, an increase of 30 days or more is projected as early as mid-century. This has implications for human health as well as evaporation, snowmelt, and water supply.

Architects working in the region should rely on smart surfaces and passive design strategies to reduce cooling load and should consider air conditioning as a critical system. There may also be opportunities to develop more outdoor spaces that can be used during shoulder seasons.

Climate issue: Sea-level rise

There are near-term risks from frequent coastal flooding for much of Southern California. It may only be a couple of decades before a coastal flooding event that previously happened once every five years, on average, happens five or more times a year.

Architects and communities can adapt to sea-level rise in a variety of ways, including raising or moving especially vulnerable buildings. Challenges include access to buildings along coastal routes, lower-floor flooding during high tides, and possible foundation issues as the water table rises.

A selection of regionally specific reports and resources:

• Fourth National Climate Assessment: Southwest chapter: A chapter from the NCA dedicated to the climate risks and vulnerabilities specific to the Southwest region.
• Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS):  A NOAA-sponsored regional climate assessment office.
• California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment: One of the most comprehensive climate assessments and action plans in the U.S.
• Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions (CCASS): A source of local and regional climate expertise as well as thematic assessments.
• Southwest Climate Change Assessment Report: A comprehensive assessment designed as a technical report to the Third National Climate Assessment that was completed in 2013.  
• City of Phoenix Climate Action Plan: A roadmap that outlines the next steps in undertaking climate change at a city-level.